Manipur’s Crisis and India’s Crossroads: Ethnicity, Security, and the Act East Challenge

• Manipur is crucial not only for internal security but also serves as India’s gateway to South East Asia and has implications for the foreign policy of India.
• The factions have continued to thrive on drug money, where the expansion of illicit drug production in Myanmar has had key implications for insurgencies in the North-Eastern region (NER).
• The violence in Manipur creates an environment of uncertainty, deterring potential investors and hindering economic growth.
• It is essential to adopt a holistic strategy that addresses past challenges, encourages inclusive discourse and guarantees efficient Government.

Manipur has been in a state of conflict from 3^rd May 2023, as the Kuki Zo and Meitei communities have confronted each other in violent clashes, which have been unprecedented in India’s post-Independence history. However, this animosity between the two communities is something that has been an eye-opener for many, as there are deep-rooted social and economic causes of this conflict. Before we dive into the heart of the matter, let us first explore the origins and then explore tangible solutions to this conflict.

Manipur was referred to as the ‘Land of Jewels’^[1] by former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, and this state has given the country laurels in sports and culture and has added to the country’s natural beauty. The violent conflict that rocked Manipur in 2023 is nothing less than a civil war and is somewhat unprecedented^[2]. More than 250 lives have been lost, and more than 60,000 displaced, not to mention over 250 churches have been torched. Manipur is crucial not only for internal security but also serves as India’s gateway to South East Asia and has implications for the foreign policy of India.

Manipur: Implications for India’s Security and Foreign Policy

Strategically located in the north-eastern corner of India bordering Myanmar, nestled in the foothills of the eastern Himalayas, the state is considered the Gateway to South East Asia^[3]. While the state is blessed with natural beauty and diverse demography, it is equally cursed with a set of internal problems that are interlinked with the external problems, all of which impact India’s national security and foreign policy.

Manipur has continued to have problems of drug menace in post-independent India, where drugs continue to flow unabated in the Golden Triangle^[4], which stretches over the borders of Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The Golden Triangle is one of the world’s biggest opium cultivation and heroin production hotspots, with its vast (150,000 square mile) and mountainous terrain making it notoriously hard to govern.^[5] Today, the Golden Triangle is the key to the drug trade between South-east Asia, South Asia, and Yunnan province of China, bordering Myanmar. The growing importance of the Golden Triangle and particularly Myanmar in the transnational drug trade has made drug production in Myanmar a key part of the country’s political economy while allowing regionally active insurgent organisations (IOs) to increasingly make use of enhanced trading opportunities.

Today, the Golden Triangle is the key to the drug trade between South-east Asia, South Asia, and Yunnan province of China, bordering Myanmar.

It is in Manipur where all three dominant factions have their insurgent organisations. The Meiteis have their outfits, such as the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and, United National Liberal Front (UNLF). The Nagas have their own, such as the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF). The Kuki Zo have their own, such as the Zomi Revolutionary Volunteers (ZRV) and the Kuki National Organisation (KNO)^[6]. Even though these Kuki Zo outfits have signed an SOO (suspension of operations) agreement with the Government of India since 2008^[7] and have to date not presented any credible threat to the State or Union Governments, unlike the Naga and Meitei groups, which have not signed an SOO with the Union Government. These factions have continued to thrive on drug money, where the expansion of illicit drug production in Myanmar has had key implications for insurgencies in the North Eastern region (NER) and has made drug trafficking money the source of income for many insurgent organisations (IO).

Since the 1990s, the revenues produced by drug trafficking have gradually come to replace other sources of revenue. One of the main products passing through the NER has been Yaba. Yaba, meaning ‘crazy medicine’ in Thai, consists of a mixture of methamphetamine and caffeine and has severe dependency effects for users. This drug is commonly sold in the form of a pill and is primarily produced in Myanmar. Yaba has long been popular in Southeast Asia. In recent years, South Asian markets have emerged as the main export market for Yaba, with Bangladesh’s demand for the drug being high. As drug production in Myanmar and demand for Myanmar-produced drugs have grown, the northeastern region is at the crossroads between the South-Southeast Asia drug trade. Drug trafficking through the NER is a very much reciprocal process as Southeast Asian producers rely on Indian produced precursor chemicals to produce synthetic drugs. These precursor chemicals are primarily used for the legal production of a wide range of products like medicines, perfumes, plastics, cosmetics, etc.

However, they can also be misused for illegal production of drugs such as methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine. The inflow of drugs into India and the outflow of precursor chemicals to Myanmar and the other parts of Southeast Asia consequently make trafficking in drug-related goods a highly attractive activity for the insurgents.^[8]

Manipur/North East India and Act East Policy

The Government of India’s Look East Policy, a policy which transformed itself to the Act East Policy, focuses on the extended neighbourhood in the Asia-Pacific region. The policy, which was originally conceived as an economic initiative, has gained political, strategic and cultural dimensions, including the establishment of institutional mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation. India has upgraded its relations to a strategic partnership with Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Australia, Singapore and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and forged close ties with all countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The objective of the Act East Policy is to promote economic cooperation, cultural ties, and develop strategic relationships with countries in the Asia-Pacific region through continuous engagement at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels, thereby providing enhanced connectivity to the states of the North-Eastern region, including Arunachal Pradesh, with other countries in the neighbourhood.

The North East of India has been a priority in the Act East Policy. Some of the major projects include the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway Project, the Rhi-Tiddim Road Project, etc.^[9] Manipur has always been the gateway to Southeast Asia due to the border haats in the towns of Moreh and Tamu, which are the only feasible land routes between India and Myanmar and the entire Southeast Asia^[10]. Despite the efforts initiated by India to open up trade routes encompassing other north eastern states of India, Manipur will continue to be the main transit point due to its advantage of having a trade relationship with Myanmar and the familiarity that it possesses, as the relationship goes back in history.

While it cannot be denied that the North East Indian states primarily Manipur serve as the launching pad for India’s Act East Policy, one must not overlook the fact that insurgency fuelled by drug trafficking and the recent civil war in 2023 are impediments for the India’s National Security and even Foreign Policy as trade in goods between borders of both countries are realized in huge volumes and with such trade comes the risk of extortion, trafficking and even a complete halt on trade. The Act East focuses on building strong infrastructure to allow commerce and connection with Southeast Asian countries.

The unrest in Manipur has slowed infrastructure development as continuing conflicts make it difficult to complete projects such as roads and border trading facilities. The volatility impedes the construction of effective trade channels, limiting economic cooperation with neighbouring countries. Various Manipur projects have been halted due to tensions and turmoil in Manipur. About ninety per cent of India’s official trade with Myanmar and Southeast Asia goes through Moreh. It’s not a surprise that Moreh is being talked about as one of India’s smart towns. The violence in Manipur creates an environment of uncertainty, deterring potential investors and hindering economic growth. The lack of a stable and secure environment diminishes the attractiveness of Manipur as a potential economic hub in the region^[11]. So, what solutions can be proposed for this recurring problem since post-independence time?

While it cannot be denied that the North East Indian states, primarily Manipur, serve as the launching pad for India’s Act East Policy, one must not overlook the fact that insurgency, fuelled by drug trafficking and the recent civil war in 2023, impedes India’s National Security and even Foreign Policy.

Closing the Pandora’s Box

India is a diverse country in terms of the demography, racial origins and even languages, and it is this diversity that is the strength of the country. While it is unfortunate for a state like Manipur that it has been left unattended by previous governments in New Delhi, this recent crisis calls for an immediate solution as Myanmar has plunged itself into a state of civil war since 2021^[12] making the situation in Manipur and other border states even more grim as the chaos in Myanmar has continued to spill over into Indian territory, thus causing humanitarian crises in addition to having adverse security implications for India. The ongoing clashes between the Kuki-Zo and the Meitei communities in Manipur mirror the broader ethnic divisions in Myanmar, making the situation even more volatile.

Cross-border kinship ties have led to the direct involvement of armed factions on both sides, escalating violence within Manipur. The porous border has also enabled the influx of weapons and narcotics from Myanmar, aggravating security concerns for India. Besides the security concerns that India has with Myanmar, there are humanitarian issues that also need attention. The intensity of Myanmar’s civil war in 2021 has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes in Myanmar and seek refuge in India’s fragile northeastern states.

According to the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, an estimated 22,000 refugees have entered India from Myanmar since February 2021, with an estimated 7000 crossing into Manipur and Mizoram in the second half of January 2022 alone. This sudden influx of refugees from Myanmar poses significant challenges to India. These challenges include: security risks and burdens to local populations as refugees make the long journey across India without proper access to food or medicine, the possible spread of infectious diseases, including Covid-19 and growing tensions between New Delhi and the State Governments of Mizoram and Manipur over how to handle the influx of refugees^[13]. So what solutions or tactics are required to close Pandora’s Box once and for all?

The tactics or solutions are not simple; policymakers from the Government of India, civil society leaders and academicians differ on this matter.  In order to bring about a lasting solution to Manipur’s crisis, we need to look into the demands/inputs from all perspectives, such as the civil society, the Government, the International Community and Academia and come to a safe conclusion. It is amply clear from such developments that there is no magic spoon for the state of Manipur, as it is crucial for India’s Internal Security and Act East Policy/Foreign Policy. India’s Act East Policy can be truly successful if we resolve the problems of the North Eastern region of India, especially Manipur, if the government is dedicated to tackling the underlying causes of violence and fostering equitable development.

Manipur may develop into a vibrant commerce and investment hub supporting the progress and prosperity of Southeast Asia and India by maintaining peace and security. The Act East Policy has the potential to unlock economic growth and collaboration with Southeast Asian nations while delivering peace and prosperity to Manipur. It is essential to adopt a holistic strategy that addresses past challenges, encourages inclusive discourse and guarantees efficient Government^[14]. The road to a prosperous Manipur with effective solutions will come with certain costs and benefits, and now is the time or the entire country including Goverment, various civil society leaders, Political parties, Academia, etc. to come together from across states and ethnicities and deliberate on an effective remedy for Manipur while keeping those 3 questions above in mind.

Bibliography:

• _{“About Manipur”. National Sports University, Government of India. Accessed July 1, 2025. https://www.nsu.ac.in/about-manipur}
• _{Ali, Yaqut. “Two Years of Fire and Silence Manipur in Pictures”. The Wire. May 3, 2025. URL: https://thewire.in/rights/manipur-violence-two-years} 
• _{“Civil War in Myanmar”. Council on Foreign Relations. Accessed July 3, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/rohingya-crisis-myanmar}
• _{(a)Ethnic Insurgencies and the Crime Insurgency Nexus in India’s North-Eastern region. European Foundation for South Asian Studies. Accessed July 3, 2025. https://www.efsas.org/publications/study-papers/insurgencies-in-india-north-eastern-region/}
• _{(b) Ethnic Insurgencies and the Crime Insurgency Nexus in India’s North-Eastern region.European Foundation for South Asian Studies. Accessed July 3, 2025. https://www.efsas.org/publications/study-papers/insurgencies-in-india-north-eastern-region/}
• _{(c) Ethnic Insurgencies and the Crime Insurgency Nexus in India’s North-Eastern region.European Foundation for South Asian Studies. Accessed July 3, 2025. https://www.efsas.org/publications/study-papers/insurgencies-in-india-north-eastern-region/}
• _{(a) Fatima, Saba. “Implications of Manipur Violence on Act East Policy.” International Journal of Multidisciplinary Trends 6, no.6 (2024), URL: https://www.multisubjectjournal.com/article/443/6-7-5-144.pdf} 
• _{(b) Fatima, Saba. “Implications of Manipur Violence on Act East Policy.” International Journal of Multidisciplinary Trends 6, no.6 (2024), URL: https://www.multisubjectjournal.com/article/443/6-7-5-144.pdf}
• _{Kontinentalist (Blog). The Drug epidemic in Asia. https://kontinentalist.com/stories/meth-yaba-syabu-drug-trafficking-in-asia-golden-triangle}
• _{Lama, Prawesh. “ Explained: Suspension of Operations agreement with Kuki Militant groups in Manipur”. Hindustan Times. February 29, 2024. URL: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/explained-suspension-of-operations-agreement-with-kuki-militant-groups-in-manipur-101709191129436.html}
• _{“Manipur Tourism”.  Manipur Tourism Government. Accessed June 30, 2025. https://manipurtourism.gov.in/about-us/}
• _{Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. Act East Policy. Press Information Bureau, 2015. URL: https://www.pib.gov.in/newsite/printrelease.aspx?relid=133837}
• _{President’s Secretariat, Government of India. Manipur’s rich culture and natural beauty establish it as the jewel of India, says the President. Press Information Bureau, 2016. URL: https://www.pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=141100}
• _{Shimray, Rinreichon. “The Positioning of Manipur in India’s Act East Policy.” IOSR-Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 20, Issue 10, Series 8 (2021): DOI: 10.9790/0837-2610083035}
• _{“Terrorist Groups in Manipur.” South Asia Terrorism Portal. Accessed July 4, 2025. https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/manipur/terrorist_outfits/index.html}
• _{United States Institute of Peace (Blog). Over a year later, Myanmar’s military coup threatens India’s National Security. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/05/over-year-later-myanmars-military-coup-threatens-indias-national-security}

References:

• _{[1] Press Information Bureau, Manipur’s Rich Culture and Natural beauty establish it as the Jewel of India}
• _{[2]  Ali, “ Two years of Fire and Silence: Manipur in pictures”.}
• _{[3] “ Manipur Tourism”}
• _{[4] Ethnic Insurgencies and the Crime Insurgency Nexus in India’s North Eastern Region (a)}
• _{[5] Ibid (b)}
• _{[6] Terrorist/Insurgent groups- Manipur}
• _{[7] Lama, “Explained: Suspension of Operations agreement with Kuki militant groups in Manipur.”}
• _{[8] Ethnic Insurgencies and the Crime Insurgency Nexus in India’s North eastern Region (c)}
• _{[9] Press Information Bureau, Act East Policy}
• _{[10] Shimray, Rinreichon “ The Positioning of Manipur in India’s Act East Policy”, 30}
• _{[11] Fatima, “ Implications of Manipur Violence on Act East Policy”, 50-51 (a)}
• _{[12] “ Civil War in Myanmar”}
• _{[13] Ambarkhane and Gathia, “Over a Year Later, Myanmar’s Military Coup Threatens India’s National Security.”}
• _{[14] Fatima, “ Implications of Manipur Violence on Act East Policy”, 51 (b)}

John T Guite and Vinay N Bhushan

John Guite is an Assistant Professor at Loyola Academy, Secunderabad, and Vinay Bhushan is an Assistant Professor at Bangalore University. Views expressed are the author’s own.