Over the past few months, ‘India Out’ campaign in the Maldives has gained momentum soon after the release of former president and progressive party leader Abdulla Yameen from his prison sentence in a money laundering case. He has been seen as a prominent face in the campaign and has been attending a series of public rallies giving out speeches and expressing his differences on Indian Military Presence in the Maldives and demanding for its ‘sovereignty’. The Maldives Journal quoted him saying during one of the opposition rallies that the “Maldives is not an Indian town, and its President should not be a governor appointed by India”.
The campaign started and spread on social media, over the past three years. Maldivian online news outlet co-founder Ahmed Azam expressed his displeasure, on “India Out” Campaign called for removing Indian Military Presence in the Maldives. Recently during the Maldivian Independence Day Hashtag #Indiaout has been on twitter trends in Maldives. In the past it has been a civil society movement but now it has become a political movement with its former president leading the movement as frontman.
In August 2021, the coalition of the progressive party and people’s national congress held several rallies across Maldives protesting in name of “selling of Maldives” to India. In the capital Male, around 350 motorcyclists came out on the streets showing the strength of opposition and demanded the release of Yameen from jail who was then imprisoned on money laundering charges. On the same day, India’s State Bank of India Building went up in flames. Maldives issued a statement stating that it was unclear whether the fire was an accident or an act of sabotage. While the focus of opposition is the “India out Campaign” , its primary target is the present ruling government which is deepening its ties with India.
Roots of the Anti-India Campaign
Interestingly, the roots of the campaign can be traced back to 2013. Soon after Abdulla Yameen took up presidential office, the relationship between India and Maldives soured and turned ugly. In its enthusiasm to please the Chinese, Abdulla Yameen’s government indulged in anti-India slogans and policies. India played a major role in helping and building the Maldivian economy as well as underwriting political stability in the country since the time of its independence from Britain in 1965. But after Abdulla Yameen took over the office in 2013, the Indo-Maldives ties were shaken up. Yameen maintained a good diplomatic relationship with China. Remarkably, before 2011, China didn’t even have an embassy in the Maldivian capital but after 2011 there was a boom in Chinese tourists as well as Chinese foreign investment.
It was during Yameen’s Presidency that Maldives Relations with China warmed considerably. Maldives joined China’s Belt Road Initiative and borrowed heavily from the Chinese to fund infrastructure projects. Back in 2014, the Chinese government, under its grant of aid, funded Male-Hulhule 1.39 KM Long bridge project with 126 million dollars. It was then originally called China-Maldives friendship Bridge and was officially inaugurated in 2018. This is one of the several projects funded by China in the Maldives.
But present Parliament speaker and Maldives democratic party president Mohammed Nasheed made the allegation in 2021 that the ‘Chinese Debt trap’ bill is 3 billion dollars and this included government to government loans and the money given to state enterprises and private sector loans guaranteed by Maldivian government. He then questioned, “Can these assets produce enough revenue to pay back the debt? The business plan of none of these projects have any indication to suggest that it will be able to pay back the loan”. Nasheed even worried that the Maldives could meet the same fate as Sri Lanka where the Chinese debt trap led to Chinese state-run enterprises acquiring a 70 percent stake in Hambantota port on a 99-year lease in 2017.
There have been a few untoward incidents that led Maldivians Harbouring anti-India sentiments. In 2010 and 2013 India Gifted Maldives with the two Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopters which were operated by Indian officers and used for maritime security, ocean search and rescue operations. In 2016 then President Yameen asked the Indian government to take back two helicopters which were then gifted. As per reports, the Maldives government wanted a Dornier maritime surveillance aircraft instead of Dhruv. The Indian government refused to take back the choppers. Soon after Ibrahim Mohammed Sohil took over the office in 2018, he scrapped the request made by Abdulla Yameen and he extended the stay of Indian personnel who operated the choppers.
The India Out campaign gained prominence after the pact between the Maldives National Defence force and the Indian Military. The opposition progressive party and people’s national congress bombarded the government in the parliament. Opposition MP and Former defence minister Adam Shareef Umar had Requested for a Parliamentary Review on the three agreements between MNDF and Indian Military to develop a dockyard in Uthuru Fila Falhu (UTF) Base and to operate a Dornier aircraft with Indian assistance. Adam Shareef made claims that leaked documents showed the Indian military had plans to stay back for decades while enjoying exclusive rights using the UTF Facility.
Presently, under the presidency of Ibrahim Mohammed Solih, Maldives is no longer under the overwhelming influence of China. The Indo-Maldivian ties have been robust with the return to power of the Maldivian Democratic Party. India regained its Primacy with the Maldives in strategic space which it lost to China During Yameen’s Presidency but the present ‘India out’ campaign by opposition parties is trying to tarnish the bilateral relations.
Planned Infowar
In November 2021, The Columbo Information Agency released a report revealing that a planned information war is being waged by certain parties in the Maldives against India whereby the perpetrators are spreading misinformation under the garb of national identity. It further revealed that several publications like Dhiyares and ‘The Maldives journal’ have been serving as a mouthpiece to disseminate content propagating the opposition claims. Though no concrete evidence of an orchestrated campaign against India can be found, the pro-China stance of its main proponents can be traced in several places.
There is nothing to suggest that India is a threat to Maldivian independence, sovereignty and security when we look at the past. It is only on three occasions that the Indian Military Personnel were in the Maldives. The first was in 1988 owing to the request by the host government to help counter a coup bid. The other two times were during the tsunamis in 2004 and 2015 when Indian Air Force and Indian Navy rushed potable water for Male after the blow out at the capital’s lone desalination plant. On all the three occasions, Indian armed forces left immediately after the accomplishment of its assigned task.
Hence, it is evident that Abdulla Yameen and his Progressive Party of Maldives as Chinese sympathisers are orchestrating the India out campaign by merely becoming pawns in the former’s geopolitical game.
(The author is a student of Business Management at Jain University, Bengaluru. The opinions expressed are author’s own)
Sourabh Shetty is a partner at Fiscal Focus LLP and a finance executive at Param Foundation. He writes on finance, economy and international affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Aayush Pal 
Balaji Subramanian 
Palak Dogra