Would Anura Dissanayake Be India’s Strategic Bet in Sri Lanka’s Presidential Race? Samvada World

Anura Dissanayake’s Political Shift: Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the NPP and JVP alliance, is positioning himself as a “change-maker” for Sri Lanka in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, despite his party’s past radical Marxist leanings and opposition to the state.
India’s Strategic Interest: India is closely monitoring Sri Lanka’s election due to concerns over China’s growing influence, particularly through investments in strategic assets like the Hambantota port.
Challenges and Uncertainties: While Dissanayake leads in polls, he faces significant challenges, including opposition from veteran politicians and internal party dynamics.

The decision of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the Leader of the National People’s Power (NPP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) alliance, to contest the forthcoming presidential election scheduled for September 21, 2024, in Sri Lanka has received much attention. His potential ascendancy as the next leader raises questions about whether India is backing Dissanayake to counterbalance the China factor in Sri Lanka.

Anura Dissanayake’s party, once considered an adversary of the state, is now seeking to lead that very state. The JVP, which has twice rebelled against the government, has a past rooted in radical Marxism. However, recent years have seen a shift, especially following the failure of the party and Sri Lanka’s economic downturn, mass protests, and the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022. In this changing political landscape, Dissanayake presents himself as a “change-maker” in a time of transition.

India’s Strategic Interests

India’s stake in the Sri Lankan election is significant. As Sri Lanka’s neighbour, India has always been concerned about China’s growing influence in Sri Lanka, particularly through its investments in strategic assets like the Hambantota port. Sri Lanka’s position in the Indian Ocean makes it crucial in geopolitical dynamics, and India’s efforts to contain China’s presence may involve aligning with Dissanayake. Analysts believe that India is closely following the election, as its outcome will impact India’s strategic and economic position in South Asia.

Dissanayake’s Political Positioning

Although Dissanayake’s party has historically been opposed to Indian involvement in Sri Lanka, recent reports suggest that he has met with Indian officials, signalling a potential shift. His recent interactions with high-level officials in New Delhi suggest that he may be positioning himself as a more moderate candidate who could improve relations with India. However, his party’s historical ties with China and its anti-India rhetoric make this narrative challenging. The NPP’s longstanding hostility toward India raises questions about how Dissanayake would handle international relations if elected.

Challenges Ahead

The election presents significant challenges for Dissanayake, not only from veteran politicians like current Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa but also from factions within his party. While polls show him leading, managing a nation struggling with economic crises and ethnic tensions will be a major test. Additionally, the JVP’s support for the “Unitary State” and its reluctance to endorse the 13th Amendment, which decentralizes power to provincial councils, could alienate voters, particularly in Tamil constituencies.

As Sri Lanka gears up for its critical presidential election, Anura Dissanayake stands at the centre of its political transformation. India may view him as a candidate who could be more sympathetic to its interests, yet Dissanayake’s past affiliations with radical politics and China remain concerning. The election will shape Sri Lanka’s internal dynamics and its international relations in a region that is increasingly becoming a battleground between India and China. The outcome of this election will be pivotal in determining the direction of Sri Lanka’s future political and foreign policy.

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