Is Bhutan the next Sikkim? Strategic Stakes in Bhutan’s Sovereignty Amidst China’s Belligerence

  • India and Bhutan have maintained a distinctive diplomatic bond which gained formal recognition through the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1968.
  • Due to its strategic location between China and India, Bhutan has become a significant player in managing buffer zone responsibilities.
  • Bhutan and India have strengthened their strategic partnership through recent diplomatic activities that protect Bhutanese national sovereignty against the expanding Chinese influence.
  • The growing Chinese influence in the region while the situation in Bangladesh has created an essential geopolitical security role for India’s support of Bhutan’s interests.

The recent diplomatic turmoil in the Indian Subcontinent has strengthened partnerships between India and Bhutan. Bhutan’s Ruling class’s recent visits to India have signaled a geopolitical high point, given the growing interest of China in the region with the situation in Bangladesh raising alarming bells across the subcontinent.

India and Bhutan have maintained a distinctive diplomatic bond which gained formal recognition through the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1968. The strategic partnership uses this treaty as its foundation because it promotes mutual understanding and cooperation between both nations. It helps Bhutan improve its economic relationship with India as it primarily receives major financial and trade assistance from its largest economic partner

Recent Engagements

The Prime Minister of Bhutan Dasho Tshering Tobgay attended the School of Ultimate Leadership (SOUL) conclave of 2025 in February in India, during which Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi received high praise from Bhutanese Prime Minister who described him as both his “elder brother” and his “mentor” during this official meeting. This displayed the growing confidence between the two nations.

This visit showcased the importance of the Neighbourhood-First Policy (NFP) which prioritizes regional partnerships based on trust, development cooperation, and shared security priorities.

Economic Cooperation

The 2025-26 budget from India devotes ₹2,150 crores to Bhutan, as its neighbor Bhutan received the biggest amount of Indian financial support. As an expression of strategic interest India makes this substantial monetary investment to preserve Bhutan’s economic self-determination and strategic independence. The India-Bhutan Trade Commerce and Transit Agreement produces a free trading environment because India remains Bhutan’s leading commercial partner.

Geopolitical Significance

Due to its strategic location between China and India, Bhutan has become a significant player in managing buffer zone responsibilities. The Siliguri Corridor stands out between India and the rest of the country because of its narrow connection that links India’s northeastern states to the region. The corridor faces acute sensitivity from its near-central location to Bhutan.

The Chinese government considers Bhutan to be a part of their “five-finger policy” through which they seek to advance their regional reach. India recognized Bhutan’s crucial position in its security network after the Doklam standoff of 2017. Bhutan’s progress in settling border disputes with China prompts India to maintain continuous care about any possible changes in Bhutan’s foreign policy decisions.

Does India support Bhutan over its concerns about China?

Bhutan and India have strengthened their strategic partnership through recent diplomatic activities that protect Bhutanese national sovereignty against the expanding Chinese influence. Bhutan strives for diplomatic connection with China and border settlement but its growing political alliance with India demonstrates its need for Indian strategic backing. India demonstrates its considerable financial support to Bhutan while the country joins India-led regional forums such as SAARC and BIMSTEC that follow India’s regional diplomatic agenda.

Visits between India and Bhutan occur regularly because these two nations pursue strategic, economic, and cultural connections. Some analysts suggest these visits function as a strategic request for security from Chinese territorial advances because they may unintentionally involve India in regional confrontations. According to this viewpoint, Bhutan is covertly requesting Indian military defence against China while risking a heightening of Himalayan disputes.

Is Bhutan the Next Sikkim?

The diplomatic relations between Bhutan and China as well as India generate worries that the country could potentially share the same destiny as Sikkim did historically. India incorporated Sikkim as its official territory in 1975 after its previous status as an independent kingdom. The growing international conditions that put pressure on Bhutan prompt experts to speculate about its potential future status. The cultural strength of Bhutan alongside its dedicated commitment to autonomy demonstrates why the governance path of Sikkim is improbable for Bhutan. With its focused approach to sustainable development and its strong connection to India and its cultural heritage Bhutan proves it will stay independent in regional politics. The review demonstrates that Bhutan must maintain a careful equilibrium because it faces challenges to retain its independence against strong neighbouring powers.

India and Bhutan’s changing diplomatic relations emphasize the vital position that their regional partnership holds for the Indian Sub-continent. The growing Chinese influence in the region while the situation in Bangladesh has created an essential geopolitical security role for India’s support of Bhutan’s interests. Bhutan’s dependency on India for vital strategic backing as both countries develop stronger diplomatic relations and economic cooperation to secure regional stability and benefit both parties.

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By Parag Gilada

Parag is pursuing his master's at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author's own.

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