1. Political Crisis and Regional Impact: The resignation of Sheikh Hasina and establishment of an interim government in Bangladesh under Dr. Muhammad Yunus has implications for Bangladesh’s stability and neighboring South Asia, impacting regional security and humanitarian issues, including the Rohingya refugee crisis.
2. ASEAN’s Role and Response: ASEAN’s generally passive stance may need adjustment to address political instability effectively, potentially through humanitarian aid and stronger diplomatic involvement to support democracy and human rights.
3. International Reactions: The U.S. calls for democratic respect, China seeks stability due to strategic interests, and India supports the interim government while managing potential refugee influxes and securing borders.
The political turmoil in Bangladesh, with the resignation of Sheikh Hasina due to protest escalation, received much attention from the international community, especially ASEAN. Urged by demands for government job reshuffling, these protests quickly turned into widespread calls for the resignation of Hasina, alongside general democratic demands. It worsened soon, leading to more than 300 deaths in connection with the crackdown on demonstrations. After quitting her post, Hasina fled to India. In her absence, a caretaker government was formed under the noble laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. This political instability has serious significance for Bangladesh and South Asia in terms of stability.
ASEAN abilities are often condemned as passive during the crises in the ASEAN region. This careful strategy is evident in the organization’s approach to previous situations, especially in Myanmar. In response to Myanmar’s military coup, ASEAN held the Leaders’ Meeting and supported the Five Point Consensus. However, such consensus’s efficiency has recently been discussed due to its weak application and overall inability to come up with significant results.
ASEAN’s reaction to the situation in Bangladesh has been relatively good. As for this topic, no official declaration has been made but it is quite clear that ASEAN is following the events closely. The ongoing conflict might be best described as a low-intensity clash that the international organization has previously shied from directly addressing since this might slow down the time needed for peacemaking that would otherwise maintain the situation. If Bangladesh faces civil conflicts and pressure affecting economic progress, the catalytic action from ASEAN will be valuable.
The current political situation in Bangladesh is already threatening the internal factors of the country now external factors will also be affected. Vulnerability might bring a rise in tension with neighboring countries and humanitarian issues such as those Rohingya migrants who live in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. Based upon these dynamics, ASEAN must contemplate the best strategies for interacting with the nations in question to minimize the risks effectively.
This is where the potential of ASEAN as the mediator becomes important. ASEAN hopes to engage its members and seek collaboration with neighboring nations to ensure that security issues remain protected within the area while humanitarian problems receive the due attention they deserve. The organization may need to take a more active role in the ability to interlope when area stability is required.
Also relevant, the potential humanitarian consequences of the crisis cannot be dismissed. As close to one million Rohingyas refugees are already living in Bangladesh, further deterioration can complicate the existing challenges. ASEAN has in the past provided humanitarian assistance during crises in Myanmar; perhaps the same needs to be done now. It was argued that when immediate humanitarian issues were removed or alleviated through collaboration between the members and other parties, long-term stability followed.
In the future analysis, it will be important for ASEAN to reevaluate what its stance is regarding member states in political crisis. In some cases, non-interference might no longer be sufficient as an approach that the organization needs to adopt to achieve regional stability and ensure respect for human rights. This change could mean improving the diplomatic relations with the existing interim government in Bangladesh and the one with other neighboring countries.
This is an issue because as citizens around the world heighten attention to human rights abuses within this crisis, organizations like ASEAN are jeopardizing their legitimacy. Thus, inadequate solutions to these problems can contribute to criticism from internal communities of member states as well as the international community. Thus, it becomes essential for ASEAN to seek meaningful ways to relate with all stakeholders and support democracy and human rights that are echoed within the said group of countries.
The United States has expressed concern over the political developments in Bangladesh and has called for respect for democratic processes and human rights. Washington’s response includes potential sanctions against individuals responsible for violence against protesters and support for civil society organizations advocating for democracy.
China on the other hand has maintained a neutral stance but is closely monitoring the situation given its strategic interests in the region. Beijing may leverage its influence over Bangladesh to ensure stability and prevent spillover effects that could disrupt its Belt and Road Initiative projects.
India’s response has been pragmatic; it has offered support to the interim government while expressing concern over stability along its border with Bangladesh. New Delhi aims to manage the influx of refugees and maintain strong bilateral relations amidst the political upheaval.
ASEAN’s reaction towards a political crisis in Bangladesh will play a significant role not only in the country’s further development but also in the stability of the South Asia region. Despite the non-interventionist policy, ASEAN must effectively address the challenge of this crisis by understanding the processes of collective and mutually beneficial cooperation among all members and neighboring states. In this way, ASEAN can effectively contribute to containing the risks related to this change and, on the other hand, promote democratic governance and human rights in Bangladesh.
References-
- Suvolaxmi Dutta Choudhury, What are the Ramifications of Bangladesh’s Political Turmoil for India, Broader Region, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, August 7, 2024
- Faisal Mahmud, Bangladesh PM Hasina faces calls to quit as political crisis boils, Nikkei Asia, August 5, 2024
- Cchavi Vasisht, Can ASEAN address the Myanmar Crisis?, Hindustan Times, October 11, 2024
- Brahma Chellaney, South Asia’s Deepening Political Turmoil, Project Syndicate, August 12, 2024
Parag is pursuing his master’s at the Jindal School of International Affairs. Views expressed are the author’s own.
Satish Chogule 
Saisha Kamla Dudha 
Shobhil Shrivastava