Macron’s Ukraine Gambit: Face Saver or False Bravado?

• Macron’s statement on sending troops to Ukraine has the potential to change the status quo of the conflict, from a proxy war to a direct NATO-Russia war.
• His statement comes at a time when Western cooperation towards Ukraine is facing a challenge after weakening American support, which is forcing Europe to take on major responsibilities.
• Macron wants to also indicate to Russia and the world that Europe is united when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict and the security of Europe.

Last week, French President Macron made a shocking announcement of France’s attempt to send its soldiers to Ukraine along with other European soldiers. Though later he clarified that he was being misunderstood, one should not ignore these circumstances as this possibility may be a reality.

This development has the potential to change the status quo of the conflict, from a proxy war to a direct NATO-Russia war. However, it is important to understand the timing at which Macron made his statement of sending French troops.

His statement was made at a time when Ukraine was struggling on the battlefield. Its strategic objectives have massively failed, resulting in the loss of territories like Bakhmut, Soledar, Avdiivka, and Ivanakoye. The failed strategy forced Ukraine to make major military changes and Commander Zaluhzhny was removed by Commander Srysky. With Russia continuing to move forward, there is less hope of any Ukrainian success on the battlefield, which worries Europe. Hence, President Macron wants to send soldiers to stop and deter Russia.

Macron’s statement also comes at a time when Western cooperation towards Ukraine is facing a challenge after weakening American support. The weakening American support is forcing Europe to take on major responsibilities. America swept with domestic bipartisan differences, where Republicans are against any Ukraine aid until a complete specific border protection bill is ensured, is hindering any American aid to Ukraine.

As a result, European countries like France, Germany, and the UK have to be major aid partners for Ukraine, which proves to be challenging amid their domestic economic challenges. Also, there are sheer differences that lie with European military-industrial companies compared to American military-industrial companies as the latter is stronger. Hence, this is leading to panic across the European continent where Europe is running short of options.

French President Macron, with his statement, also wants to indicate to Russia and the world that Europe is united when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict and the security of Europe, as Russia has raised that there are existing differences in Europe. Even though President Macron wants to showcase European security, there are still fissures in Europe regarding its security structure.

Countries in the EU are divided in a debate over what should be the way of European security. Should it be under American hands or should Europe seek strategic autonomy? This debate gained new spirits when President Macron visited China in 2023 and surprisingly said that Europe should not support the USA for Taiwan and he even went so far as to say that Europe should not come under American influence for security and should seek strategic autonomy.

In conclusion, though President Macron says that he was misunderstood when he mentioned sending soldiers to Ukraine, there are still real possibilities that it may happen. It would also depend on how the Ukrainian crisis unfolds in times to come. If the crisis escalates, definitely we may see some major Western intervention.

References:

1. https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-ukraine-western-troops-remarks/
2. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/european-strategic-autonomy-after-macrons-trip-china

Aayush Pal

_{(Aayush is a post-graduate student in International Relations at Kalinga University, Raipur. The opinions expressed are the author’s own)}