Pakistan was recently given an IMF bailout of $3 billion as a short-term relief to avoid bankruptcy. This 23rd bailout package in its 75 years history since the partition from India, meaning that the country has gone to the brink of disaster around every 3 years on average. This is a concern that a country of around 200 million populations and with so many natural resources and geographical advantages cannot sustain itself. This is in addition to the grants and loans given by other countries such as the United States of America, Saudi Arabia and recently China.
Sanctuary for Terrorism
The USA had a vested interest in the stability of Pakistan as it needed a firm military foothold in the region for its misadventures in Afghanistan. This was very well exploited by Pakistan, which used the funds from the USA to improve its terrorist network both inside Pakistan and Afghanistan. The short-sightedness of the US is very much evident in the fact that despite having intelligence regarding the terror funding of Pakistan, they continued support to it.
Locating and killing of Osama bin Laden inside Pakistan, that too near an important air base, was not enough deterrent for the US to stop giving grants to Pakistan. With the support of the US in the international arena Pakistan had no trouble whatsoever raising loans in IMF and other international agencies. Even greylisting it in FATF wasn’t enough for the international agencies to second guess the ability of Pakistan to pay back or at least stabilize itself, to reduce the need for the loan altogether.
Each time the international agencies put some conditions for granting a loan, after intense negotiation Pakistan reluctantly makes some superficial changes in its policies in line with the recommendations of the IMF. Satisfied by the actions of Pakistan, IMF grants the loan, immediately after which, Pakistan reverts to its old ways. This charade has been going on for too long in the international arena and this bailout package seems to be no different.
China on the other hand is unlike any of the international agencies. While the latter gives loans with the lowest possible interest, the former has no compunction whatsoever in charging a significantly high-interest rate. It also doesn’t hesitate in imposing its will on the nations which are unable to pay back. China also has the habit of funding some big projects in other countries which are predicted to be unviable from the initial stages by the experts. This is also used by China to further its international propaganda and political agenda. Projects like Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka are a great example of this. Sri Lanka realized its mistake a little too late. According to the reports, it owed Chinese lenders $7.4 billion, nearly a fifth of its public external debt by the end of last year.
Bleak Economic Prospects
Since its hasty exit from Afghanistan, the US other than the nuclear technology of Pakistan retains very little interest in it. Pakistan on the other hand has sought refuge in its proclaimed benevolent and all-weather friend China for its support in both economy and international politics. As a result of which, Pakistan the self-proclaimed defender of Islamic religion, is reluctant to speak of atrocities on Uyghur Muslims and their concentration camps in China.
This time Pakistan’s bet is on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. They believe this project would be a game changer in its history. But there are many small issues regarding this. One of the ways an infrastructure project is beneficial to a country is that it can produce employment for local workers. This project on the other hand has the majority of China workers for whom security and facilities are provided by Pakistan and there seems only a handful of local workers. This has enraged the local population so much that there have been multiple reports of attacks on Chinese nationals.
Another thing is the geographical location of the project itself. It goes through the Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir region which has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan. India has rightfully objected to the project development in the region in all the international arenas, without much success. It also goes through the regions of Baluchistan, the citizens of which are fighting for their freedom and basic human rights. The corridor also goes through the areas of the border of Afghanistan which the Taliban claims as their own.
It is pertinent to remember that China unlike other international institutions isn’t forgiving in collecting their loans. Failing to comply will result in losing possession of some of the strategic assets, just like what happened to Sri Lanka, where the sovereignty of the Sri Lankan government was put into question in its own country.
Political Instability
Given the political instability in Pakistan and the upcoming general elections, there do not seem to be any prospects in the short term. A khichdi government the army created to oust Imran Khan doesn’t seem to be popular enough to bring back the mandate. Imran Khan for his part has done what no other leader of Pakistan normally doesn’t do, that is to take on the mighty army. However, the army might find it a herculean task to fully suppress Imran Khan and his populist activities. Even many supporters of democracy are sceptical of Imran Khan because of his populist policies which might ruin its economy further.
Whatever may be the case, Pakistan is certainly getting ready for a period of political turmoil, Whichever way the elections go. The preview of which the world has already witnessed recently.
The main concern for the world among all these issues is the nuclear ammunition and knowledge that Pakistan holds. This is what forces the world and international agencies to help Pakistan consistently. But the question remains, for how long? How long will the world bow before the demands of a failed State, just because it threatens its destruction might have some unforeseeable implications. Is there any plan from the international community to fix the economy and policies of Pakistan in the long run? Is there a plan to slowly relieve Pakistan of its nuclear technology?
The international community must be wary of setting any undesirable precedents, which might be an advantage for nations such as North Korea. There must be a long-term strategic plan towards Pakistan and its nuclear technology so that it does not fall into nefarious hands.
(Shreyas Goutham has an M.Sc. in Psychology and serves in NIMHANS. He writes regularly on politics, society, international affairs and technology. Opinions expressed are the author’s own)
Shreyas has an M.Sc. in Psychology and serves in NIMHANS. He writes regularly on politics, society, international affairs and technology. Views expressed are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of SamvadaWorld or its staff.
Aayush Pal 
Shobhil Shrivastava 
Dr. Niranjan B Poojar