US, China with diverse agendas coupled with religious extremist forces in Islam and evangelists may shrink open space to operate for Bharat that has big stakes in Bangladesh
K.A.Badarinath
The big boys are at play. Bangladesh’s government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is bound to be pulled apart by both the United States of America seeking to establish a military base in South Asia and the Chinese Communist Party led by President Xi Jinping seeking unquestioned dominance in Asia.
Jamaat-e-Islami and Bangladesh National Party (BNP) led by Khalid Zia would play willing tools in the big boy’s power play with Pakistan reduced to a lackey of minor variety.
There’s no denying that the Muslim Brotherhood which is globally dreaded would complicate the equation with its Islamist – Jihadist agenda on Bharat’s Eastern frontiers. ‘Razakars’ would become a handy frontline private army in the hands of jihadist Muslim leadership internationally. There have been reports that already these Razakars have taken over civic policing as an occupational army of zealots.
Well, tasks for Bharat were cut out after Sheikh Hasina’s government fell last week, the Awami League purged, a safe exit to her provided in a swift deal and the Army took the reins in a coup. Though an interim government headed by Yunus and a battery of over a dozen advisors have taken charge, nothing seems to have changed on the ground while the Army calls the shots.
Bangladesh’s under-belly has several layers that must be understood before Bharat gets to the drawing board to establish a working relationship with the new Army-controlled, Yunus-fronted regime given that Chinese, US and Pakistan deep state haggling for their pound of flesh. The ‘transitional’ Yunus regime got legitimacy as the Democratic White House was the first to recognise the government. Secretary of State’s spokesperson was drafted to convey that the US was ‘ready and looked forward’ to working with Dhaka under Yunus.
Apart from the US and Chinse dimensions, the third dimension to Bangladesh's story is the Jamaat-e-Islami backed by Pakistan and part of the larger Muslim Brotherhood going berserk would pose serious challenges to Bharat.
St Martin Island also known as ‘Narikel Jinjira’ (Coconut Island) or ‘Daruchini Dweep’ (Cinnamon Island) off-the-Chittagong coast may be eyed by the US to set up a military base to lord over both Bharat and her expansionist neighbour China. Direct US presence in the region may not be encouraged or welcomed by Bharat given the strategic implications. Also, Bharat would get cut off virtually from entire South East Asia in terms of trade, investment and services.
Church-driven ‘Project K’ to carve out an artificial autonomous region christened ‘Kukiland’ will come to the forefront. Church’s fancy idea of a separate Christian state encompasses parts of Bangladesh, Burma and Bharat’s Manipur and Mizoram. This Christian agenda is expected to get the complete backing of the White House under President Joe Biden or his possible successor Kamala Harris. Even if Donald Trump upstages the Democrats and gets elected in the November 2024 elections, this agenda may get going.
Even if general elections in Bangladesh were to be held anytime now, a pliable government in Dhaka is what Washington DC may expect to see in the saddle given that Awami League is virtually out of power play. On the other hand, China would try and get the Teesta River Project and other infrastructure ventures that provide Beijing with proximity to India’s ‘chicken neck’ area. Weeks before the Hasina government fell, US $ two billion worth of interest-free, concessional, commercial loans apart from grants were reportedly promised by China after a meeting that Bangladesh’s Prime Minister had with President Xi.
On the face of it, funding infrastructure projects either directly or through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may not just be limited to investment push. Instead, it will result in strategic issues for Bharat giving China an advantage at her doorstep.
The third dimension to Bangladesh’s story is the Jamaat-e-Islami backed by Pakistan and part of the larger Muslim Brotherhood going berserk would pose serious challenges to Bharat. Jamaat pursuing genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh has been widely reported. CIHS has meticulously documented these grave crimes.
Jamaat is popular as a ‘congregation of Muslims’. Known as the largest Muslim formation founded in 1975, Jamaat was banned from political participation by the Bangladesh Supreme Court in 2013 citing its opposition to religious freedom or practice of faith.
Within its ambit were other organizations like Al–Badr, Al–Shams and a self-styled peace committee that formed the jihadist network. All these are pronouncedly anti-Hindu, Buddhists and Christians in Bangladesh.
Evangelists and Islamist forces are expected to be on a collision course given their extremely divergent agendas for Bangladesh. Bid to carve out an autonomous Christian area by extreme evangelists with backing from the US may be at odds with the ‘theocratic’ ‘Islamist’ state that Jamaat may like to evolve Bangladesh into. Conflict between evangelists and Muslims may turn rough reported in several cities in European countries.
Contrarian geo-political forces in China and the US and religious extremism donned by evangelists and Jamaat leave very little space for an open, flexible and forward-thinking democratic agenda in Bangladesh. This is a heady mix in which India will have to tread carefully to safeguard her geo-political and strategic interests apart from those of Hindus and Indian-origin people living in Bangladesh.
Evangelists and Islamist forces are expected to be on a collision course given their extremely divergent agendas for Bangladesh.
Rightly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasised that the Yunus government in Bangladesh must take steps to protect Hindu lives, properties, and businesses especially women who have been targeted by Jihadists.
For Bharat, dealing with the influx of Bangladeshis fleeing the violence-torn country may be a big priority apart from safeguarding her people in Bangladesh.
Secondly, New Delhi may have to swerve through muddy waters that have become playgrounds for both the US and China apart from minions like Pakistan.
Thirdly, recalibrating equations with Dhaka given an array of forces from far-left extremists, and religious jihadists to the military establishment may pose a big challenge.
Fourthly, pursuing her agenda of peace, tranquillity and prosperity in South Asia may not be easy for Bharat.
Fifthly, smoothening relations with Bangladesh may turn tricky while former Prime Minister and senior Awami League leader Sheikh Hasina remain a respected state guest in Delhi.
Sixthly, working with like-minded stakeholders to ring in democracy with all forces intact may be a tall order.
Seventhly, the relatively tension-free Bangladesh border front may have to be guarded 365 days round the clock given that many in the country have lost hope and may opt to cross over for ‘greener pasture’ in India.
Eighthly, India may have to keenly watch possible threats to her demographics in the Eastern states owing to political, and social strife and economic downslide in Bangladesh.
A fresh beginning has to be made for lasting relations between Bangladesh and India with an open mind.
(The author is Director & Chief Executive of a non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies. Views expressed are the author’s own.)
Badrinath is the Director and Chief Executive of the Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies, a New Delhi-based non-partisan think tank.
Aayush Pal 
Sindhuri Sai 
Parag Gilada